10.8 Animal Waste, Livestock
10.8.1 Emissions
Introduction
Livestock emissions including dairy cattle, range cattle, poultry, swine, sheep, horses, and goats are assumed to be directly related to animal population. Most available population data is based on annual sales data. For dairy cattle, range cattle, and feedlot cattle, year 2000 population was derived from the California Department of Food and Agriculture’s (CDFA) summary of cattle and calves inventory of January 1, 2001. The populations are developed by the United States Department of Agriculture, and the CDFA 2001 Agricultural Resources Directory.
Methodology
This methodology is presently based on ARB’s methodology. Livestock population in the Bay Area was divided into subcategories: dairy cattle, range cattle, poultry (layers and broilers), swine, sheep, horses, and goats. Table 10.23 shows livestock population in the Bay Area.
| county | #1619 Dairy Cattle | #1620 Range Cattle | #1621 Broilers | #1622 Layers | #1623 Turkeys | #1624 Swine | #1625 Sheep | #1626 Horses | #1627 Other Livestock |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alameda | 3,623 | 22,381 | 332,045 | 442 | 0 | 80 | 1,266 | 1,943 | 228 |
| Contra Costa | 11,125 | 16,873 | 0 | 442 | 0 | 65 | 296 | 2,523 | 374 |
| Marin | 20,895 | 18,102 | 0 | 0 | 55,840 | 988 | 13,433 | 723 | 146 |
| Napa | 1,400 | 7,605 | 1,654,297 | 884 | 24,074 | 183 | 523 | 804 | 782 |
| San Francisco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| San Mateo | 0 | 2,998 | 0 | 442 | 142 | 38 | 108 | 1,129 | 0 |
| Santa Clara | 2,392 | 17,604 | 0 | 141,802 | 0 | 158 | 744 | 2,815 | 136 |
| Solano | 3,353 | 7,732 | 0 | 442 | 0 | 63 | 28,753 | 691 | 70 |
| Sonoma | 19,997 | 12,626 | 978,348 | 297,298 | 62,392 | 327 | 8,762 | 1,633 | 547 |
| Total | 62,784 | 105,921 | 2,964,690 | 441,750 | 142,448 | 1,902 | 53,884 | 12,262 | 2,283 |
For each category, the emissions are calculated by multiplying emission factor and population of each animal type.
Monthly Variation
Monthly distribution was estimated evenly over the twelve months.
County Distribution
The county distribution was based on the cattle population in Table 10.23 for the nine counties.
| category | ALA | CC | MAR | NAP | SF | SM | SNC | SOL | SON |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1619 Dairy Cattle | 5.8% | 17.7% | 33.3% | 2.2% | – | – | 3.8% | 5.3% | 31.9% |
| #1620 Range Cattle | 21.1% | 15.9% | 17.1% | 7.2% | – | 2.8% | 16.6% | 7.3% | 11.9% |
| #1621 Broilers | 11.2% | – | – | 55.8% | – | – | – | – | 33.0% |
| #1622 Layers | 0.1% | 0.1% | – | 0.2% | – | 0.1% | 32.1% | 0.1% | 67.3% |
| #1623 Turkeys | – | – | 39.2% | 16.9% | – | 0.1% | – | – | 43.8% |
| #1624 Swine | 4.2% | 3.4% | 52.0% | 9.6% | – | 2.0% | 8.3% | 3.3% | 17.2% |
| #1625 Sheep | 2.3% | 0.6% | 24.9% | 1.0% | – | 0.2% | 1.4% | 53.4% | 16.3% |
| #1626 Horses | 15.8% | 20.6% | 5.9% | 6.6% | – | 9.2% | 23.0% | 5.6% | 13.3% |
| #1627 Other Livestock | 10.0% | 16.4% | 6.4% | 34.2% | – | – | 6.0% | 3.1% | 24.0% |
History
Emissions through the years were estimated based on the ARB’s growth profile on dollar values of Agricultural stock for each county.
Growth
| category | backcast | forecast | profile |
|---|---|---|---|
| #1619 Dairy Cattle | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1620 Range Cattle | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1621 Broilers | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1622 Layers | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1623 Turkeys | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1624 Swine | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1625 Sheep | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1626 Horses | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
| #1627 Other Livestock | Yes | Yes | #397 Modified Arb Livestock |
The growth rate varies by county and by livestock and there is currently not a general surrogate to indicate the livestock growth or decline. In most cases, zero growth is assumed for livestock emissions, which is probably reasonable for most areas in the state. Projections to year 2030 are based on the ARB’s growth profile.
By: Michael Nguyen Date: February, 2014 Base Year 2011